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The last major source of event risk prior to Friday's non-farm payrolls report is the U.S. ISM manufacturing index, released during tomorrow's New York session. But don't overlook the U.K. Manufacturing PMI news release more than five hours prior, as that report could kick-start a move on the pound if it delivers a surprise number.
The stock markets in Japan, Germany, England and the United States were up. We started our trading planning with the idea to short the JPY. I used an Andrew's Pitch Fork on the EUR/GBP to choose our pair. Watch the video to see how made 100+ pips on the GBP/JPY.
Buying yen all night and all morning. This video is an example of how to set up short trades on the GBP/JPY based on pull backs. It also shows how to align multiple time frames so that they all agree.
With such an anticipated news week ahead of today, it was not all that surprising that we were semi-quiet just before London. This did provide us more than a few price trap scenario's to plot out before things got going, for some nice support/resistance trading. In this video I show just a couple of the trade plans we took advantage of. EUR/USD was in a 50 pip or so apex of a 2h triangle, and using USD correlation at the time gave a clear break of this support drawn on a 15m time frame right as London boys were coming on board. Whether one took the short on the break or on the quick Fibonacci retracement, either one proved a nice entry with very low risk around 1.5630-35. The targets were 1.5586 (previous S&R), 1.5548 (Psych level of 50 & todays S2 reversal pivot point), and 1.5471 (the 2hr triangle prediction). All of which provided fantastic risk vs. reward ratio (risking around 20 pips). With S2 being hit so far outside the hourly bollinger bands, it made perfect sense to take profits there, especially with some stochastic divergence building up just before it hit. This was a fairly painless 80-90 pips depending on entry, and far more if you were trading other USD pairs in a correlated fashion. Also the AUD/USD provided a very similar entry setup, correlated nicely with the Gold commodity break it's own rising trendline on the 1 hr. All of this shown in detail on this video, check it out. Fairly nice support/resistance day for several hundred pips.
FXBootcamp London Currency CoachCoach- Christian Stephens
GBP/JPY offered two scalp setups at the beginning of the session... in fact, we made 75 pips before the stock market even openned. We finished off the session with a small spot trade on the same pair.
Daily Ranges **
| AVERAGE | ||
| Last 4 Weeks | ||
| EUR/USD | 175 | |
| GBP/USD | 209 | |
| USD/CHF | 157 | |
| USD/JPY | 134 | |
| USD/CAD | 110 | |
| AUD/USD | 107 | |
| AUD/JPY | 142 | |
| CAD/JPY | 170 | |
| EUR/JPY | 170 | |
| GBP/JPY | 294 | |
| NZD/JPY | 128 | |
| NZD/USD | 93 | |
| GBP/CHF | 290 | |
| EUR/CHF | 112 |
** - Based on DealBook 360 price data through Friday, April 25, 2008
Weekly Pivot Points*
Apr 28 - May 2, 2008
| EUR/USD | GBP/USD | USD/CHF | USD/JPY | |
| R3 | 1.6376 | 2.0378 | 1.0948 | 107.40 |
| M5 | 1.6286 | 2.0290 | 1.0818 | 106.75 |
| R2 | 1.6196 | 2.0201 | 1.0689 | 106.10 |
| M4 | 1.6054 | 2.0115 | 1.0602 | 105.68 |
| R1 | 1.5913 | 2.0029 | 1.0515 | 105.26 |
| M3 | 1.5823 | 1.9941 | 1.0385 | 104.61 |
| PP | 1.5733 | 1.9852 | 1.0256 | 103.96 |
| M2 | 1.5591 | 1.9766 | 1.0169 | 103.54 |
| S1 | 1.5450 | 1.9680 | 1.0082 | 103.12 |
| M1 | 1.5360 | 1.9591 | 0.9952 | 102.47 |
| S2 | 1.5270 | 1.9503 | 0.9823 | 101.82 |
| M0 | 1.5128 | 1.9417 | 0.9736 | 101.40 |
| S3 | 1.4987 | 1.9331 | 0.9649 | 100.98 |
| USD/CAD | AUD/USD | NZD/USD | EUR/CHF | GBP/CHF | |
| R3 | 1.0448 | 0.9735 | 0.8226 | 1.6507 | 2.1511 |
| M5 | 1.0389 | 0.9686 | 0.8178 | 1.6442 | 2.1290 |
| R2 | 1.0330 | 0.9637 | 0.8130 | 1.6377 | 2.1068 |
| M4 | 1.0282 | 0.9561 | 0.8051 | 1.6324 | 2.0936 |
| R1 | 1.0233 | 0.9485 | 0.7973 | 1.6271 | 2.0803 |
| M3 | 1.0174 | 0.9436 | 0.7925 | 1.6206 | 2.0582 |
| PP | 1.0115 | 0.9387 | 0.7877 | 1.6141 | 2.0360 |
| M2 | 1.0067 | 0.9311 | 0.7798 | 1.6088 | 2.0228 |
| S1 | 1.0018 | 0.9235 | 0.7720 | 1.6035 | 2.0095 |
| M1 | 0.9959 | 0.9186 | 0.7672 | 1.5970 | 1.9874 |
| S2 | 0.9900 | 0.9137 | 0.7624 | 1.5905 | 1.9652 |
| M0 | 0.9851 | 0.9061 | 0.7545 | 1.5852 | 1.9520 |
| S3 | 0.9803 | 0.8985 | 0.7467 | 1.5799 | 1.9387 |
| AUD/JPY | EUR/JPY | GBP/JPY | NZD/JPY | CAD/JPY | |
| R3 | 99.93 | 166.85 | 213.94 | 84.16 | 106.73 |
| M5 | 99.55 | 166.38 | 212.48 | 83.84 | 105.94 |
| R2 | 99.17 | 165.90 | 211.02 | 83.52 | 105.14 |
| M4 | 98.74 | 165.22 | 210.10 | 83.04 | 104.60 |
| R1 | 98.30 | 164.54 | 209.17 | 82.56 | 104.06 |
| M3 | 97.92 | 164.07 | 207.71 | 82.24 | 103.27 |
| PP | 97.54 | 163.59 | 206.25 | 81.92 | 102.47 |
| M2 | 97.11 | 162.91 | 205.33 | 81.44 | 101.93 |
| S1 | 96.67 | 162.23 | 204.40 | 80.96 | 101.39 |
| M1 | 96.29 | 161.76 | 202.94 | 80.64 | 100.60 |
| S2 | 95.91 | 161.28 | 201.48 | 80.32 | 99.80 |
| M0 | 95.48 | 160.60 | 200.56 | 79.84 | 99.26 |
| S3 | 95.04 | 159.92 | 199.63 | 79.36 | 98.72 |
* - based on GFT DealBook 360 price data
Today the USD was on a bit of an early warpath against most currencies just before London opened, continuing to some predictable profit taking points. This was true with the exception of the British Pound which woke up and crushed the USD. While we had a ton of successful trade plans during this London session we focus in this video on the EUR/USD. Using 15m MACD and stochastic divergence as an early directional clue, the EUR/USD finally bounced off the last 15m swing's 50% fib and broke it's 21 ema along with a very easy to see trend line from yesterdays low. Once this break occurred there were at least 4 Fibonacci retracements offering entry before the big plunge to our 138% fib extension at 1.5685. Three quite conservative repeatable entries were available over a couple hour span before it finally snapped the support around the 4 hour 200ema. After which the target was just a matter of time. Not very often do you get 3 or 4 chances to enter at retracements levels like this, pretty sweet trade here for 75-100 pips depending on which one you took. Overall was a very nice multiple hundred pip day playing around with the USD. Have a great weekend!
FXBootcamp London Currency Coach- Christian Stephens
The Forex Basic Training Program - Chapter II
Register for this Session
Expert: Wayne McDonell & David Pegler of FxBootcamp
Moderator: Maud Gilson
Start: Fri, Apr 25 2008, 08:00 GMT
End: Fri, Apr 25 2008, 10:00 GMT
Summary:
In this long-term educational series, called "FX Bootcamp Basic Training", we will start you at the very beginning: teaching you how to crawl. Over the next several months, you will learn how to stand, step, walk, run, and sprint your way into the forex trading industry.
The FX Bootcamp Basic Training series includes technical analysis, fundamental analysis, inter-market analysis, trade analysis and of course psychological analysis. Each of the presentations will a mix of webinar and live market data.
The second presentation in April will teach you: Fibonacci Studies, Moving Averages.
Please plan on attending future presentations at FXstreet.com:
May: Stochastic, MACD, and RSI Oscillators.
June: Pattern Recognition, Currency Correlation, Commodity Correlation, Inter-market analysis.
July: Breakouts, Continuation Patterns, Trending and Naked Trading.
August: Pivot Points, Andrews Pitch Fork News Trading.
September: Trade Planning, Carry & Swing Trading, Trader Psychology,
October: Money Management & Trader Psychology.
November: Central Banking and Global Money Flow.
December: Course Review with Q&A: GRADUATION!
Release of the latest monthly figures for U.S. durable goods orders and new home sales will not go unnoticed by traders during tomorrow's New York session. However, recent history suggests that the German Ifo Business Climate Index and U.K. retail sales reports should provide the best opportunities for conservative, repeatable news trades.
London got off to a quick start with the GBP/USD breaking some minor recent support on it's way back to below 1.99. This break was trappable, and offered one shot at a pullback entry at the 50% Fibonacci area on short term charts. After this extension was quite fast to first support at 199, and then onward to the 50% fib of yesterdays range at 1.9871. Depending on trade management this was a fairly quick and painless 30-60 pips on the pullback entry. After this the majors became quite choppy and without follow through for the remainder of the session, that is until the BOE meeting minutes were released. After the surprising 6-2-1 vote, all GBP pairs spiked strongly. GBP/CHF in particular had been in a very definable range prior to news, which broke the resistance at around 2.0046. Doing a quick Fibonacci study of the 3 minute news candle placed the 50% retracement level right at this previous resistance at 46. Planning on role reversal we waited until a pullback to this level, pulling the trigger there on a long around 1.9949 with a fairly tight stop somewhere under the 35 area. things started out ok but the hourly bollinger band was not cooperating. Things looked dicey, but never broke our entry point. Finally price moved onward to a +30 pip or so point, allowing us to move our stops to break even. Eventually we did reach 2.01 which offered traders either a chance to close at a nice 50 pip trade, or to protect a 25 pip (what we consider map-minimal acceptable performance) on this pair and reach for our overall target around 199.70. All GBP pairs however ran their course and reversed lower than before, which stopped us at +25 pips, oh well. Tricky session indeed, but still a decent amount of pips to be had. Remember, capital preservation is goal #1, so 60-90 pips on 2 trades works for me on a tough night.
FXBootcamp London Currency Coach- Christian Stephens
The release of the minutes from the most recent meeting of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee during early European trading tomorrow should steer the attention of Forex traders to the British pound. While the committee's voting results aren't the only factor that influences the market's reaction to this news, analysis of the historical data suggests that surprises in those results do raise the odds of a big day for the GBP/USD.
After the EUR/USD fibbed it's way down to a 50% retracement of the recent rise from 157, the EUR/JPY completed it's run to the daily S2 reversal pivot point. While the EUR/USD was forming a double bottom on this fib and hourly 200 ema, every single Japanese Yen pairing was starting to show divergence on the 15 minute chart MACD & stochastics. This was a very large clue that a rise was on the way, now we just needed some confirmation along with a way to sneak our entry in safely. As the German DAX, S&P, & Dow futures began to rise, Gold began to rise, oil began to rise (so USD fell) and the Yens started to work on upward. After the EUR/JPY hit it's 21ema on the 15m chart we were able to put together a very low risk, high probability entry plan around the 50% retracement on shorter time frames with confirmation. Along with all the other correlations going on simultaneously the trade risk was very much in our favor. The target was at least our daily CPP for an S2 to CPP day around 164.35, with our main target around the daily M3 at 164.60. The retracement to 50% offered us an entry window around 163.50 risking around 20 pips to get 100, very nice indeed, and even with confirmation in the form of stochs, and a 1m 5/8 cross. Whether you only traded this EUR/JPY setup or a correlated Yen basket, you had great success and were able to lock in B/E, and your profits quickly. Sweet pullback session indeed.
FXBootcamp London Currency Coach- Christian Stephens
After a wonderful extension after Friday's better than expected Citibank loss, profit taking today was expected. Sure enough, using fibonacci retracements, and trapping price with by connecting lower high's, we were able to catch a good part of the profit taking wave with some fresh shorts after confirmation. Depending on entry, exit, and if one took the reload opportunity or not it was a nice 100-250 pip gain without much stress at all, all while being performing very predictably.
FXBootcamp London Currency Coach- Christian Stephens
Daily Ranges *
AVERAGE
Last 4 Weeks
EUR/USD 167
GBP/USD 171
USD/CHF 150
USD/JPY 146
USD/CAD 110
AUD/USD 92
AUD/JPY 157
CAD/JPY 185
EUR/JPY 186
GBP/JPY 309
NZD/JPY 147
NZD/USD 92
GBP/CHF 266
EUR/CHF 112
* - Based on DealBook 360 price data through Friday, April 18, 2008
Weekly Pivot Points*
Apr 21-25, 2008
EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/CHF USD/JPY
R3 1.6287 2.0516 1.0691 109.79
M5 1.6211 2.0387 1.0589 108.50
R2 1.6135 2.0257 1.0486 107.21
M4 1.6055 2.0187 1.0410 106.33
R1 1.5975 2.0117 1.0334 105.44
M3 1.5899 1.9988 1.0232 104.15
PP 1.5823 1.9858 1.0129 102.86
M2 1.5743 1.9788 1.0053 101.98
S1 1.5663 1.9718 0.9977 101.09
M1 1.5587 1.9589 0.9875 99.80
S2 1.5511 1.9459 0.9772 98.51
M0 1.5431 1.9389 0.9696 97.63
S3 1.5351 1.9319 0.9620 96.74
* - based on GFT DealBook 360 price data
Weekly Pivot Points*
Apr 21-25, 2008
USD/CAD AUD/USD NZD/USD EUR/CHF GBP/CHF
R3 1.0498 0.9621 0.8066 1.6658 2.1578
M5 1.0441 0.9566 0.8034 1.6534 2.1307
R2 1.0385 0.9511 0.8002 1.6409 2.1037
M4 1.0299 0.9469 0.7977 1.6333 2.0862
R1 1.0213 0.9426 0.7952 1.6257 2.0688
M3 1.0156 0.9371 0.7920 1.6132 2.0417
PP 1.0100 0.9316 0.7888 1.6008 2.0147
M2 1.0014 0.9274 0.7863 1.5932 1.9972
S1 0.9928 0.9231 0.7838 1.5856 1.9798
M1 0.9872 0.9176 0.7806 1.5732 1.9527
S2 0.9815 0.9121 0.7774 1.5607 1.9257
M0 0.9729 0.9079 0.7749 1.5531 1.9082
S3 0.9643 0.9036 0.7724 1.5455 1.8908
* - based on GFT DealBook 360 price data
Weekly Pivot Points*
Apr 21-25, 2008
AUD/JPY EUR/JPY GBP/JPY NZD/JPY CAD/JPY
R3 103.45 172.79 222.32 86.43 111.39
M5 101.96 170.76 218.99 85.42 109.51
R2 100.47 168.73 215.65 84.41 107.63
M4 99.57 167.54 213.52 83.78 106.53
R1 98.66 166.35 211.38 83.14 105.42
M3 97.17 164.32 208.05 82.13 103.54
PP 95.68 162.29 204.71 81.12 101.66
M2 94.78 161.10 202.58 80.49 100.56
S1 93.87 159.91 200.44 79.85 99.45
M1 92.38 157.88 197.11 78.84 97.57
S2 90.89 155.85 193.77 77.83 95.69
M0 89.99 154.66 191.64 77.20 94.59
S3 89.08 153.47 189.50 76.56 93.48
* - based on GFT DealBook 360 price data
After EUR/USD finally broke a well established ascending triangle on the Daily chart yesterday, we were looking for a retest of the break area to hopefully snag a high probability entry for continuation onward to and through 160. Using Fibonacci retracement levels, psychological level of 159.00, multiple ema's on 1, 2, and 4 hour charts, and daily pivot points, we were able to identify an area of immense overlapping support. As the bollinger squeeze began, stochastic & macd divergence indicated a rise was imminent. All we needed was that quick pop to support for the high probability setup to play out to the upside, risking approximately 25 pips to gain 100+. The trade ultimately offered a simply perfect entry and gave us an easy 80 pips however, eventually reversing before ever touching 160. Nevertheless a high quality, high probability setup, which was able to be planned at least an hour in advance. What more can you ask for, even with the failure of continuation, it was an easy 50 pips nonetheless.
Weekly Pivot Points*
Apr 14 - Apr 18, 2008
EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/CHF USD/JPY
R3 1.6223 2.0181 1.0442 105.37
M5 1.6145 2.0124 1.0374 104.74
R2 1.6067 2.0067 1.0306 104.11
M4 1.6002 1.9973 1.0232 103.33
R1 1.5937 1.9878 1.0158 102.55
M3 1.5859 1.9821 1.0090 101.92
PP 1.5781 1.9764 1.0022 101.29
M2 1.5716 1.9669 0.9948 100.51
S1 1.5651 1.9575 0.9874 99.73
M1 1.5573 1.9518 0.9806 99.10
S2 1.5495 1.9461 0.9738 98.47
M0 1.5430 1.9366 0.9664 97.69
S3 1.5365 1.9272 0.9590 96.91
USD/CAD AUD/USD NZD/USD EUR/CHF GBP/CHF
R3 1.0517 0.9523 0.8166 1.6182 2.0677
M5 1.0450 0.9479 0.8130 1.6125 2.0555
R2 1.0382 0.9434 0.8094 1.6068 2.0433
M4 1.0345 0.9395 0.8053 1.6007 2.0249
R1 1.0308 0.9355 0.8012 1.5946 2.0066
M3 1.0241 0.9310 0.7976 1.5889 1.9944
PP 1.0173 0.9266 0.7940 1.5832 1.9822
M2 1.0136 0.9226 0.7899 1.5771 1.9638
S1 1.0099 0.9187 0.7858 1.5710 1.9455
M1 1.0032 0.9143 0.7822 1.5653 1.9333
S2 0.9964 0.9098 0.7786 1.5596 1.9211
M0 0.9927 0.9058 0.7745 1.5535 1.9028
S3 0.9890 0.9019 0.7704 1.5474 1.8844
AUD/JPY EUR/JPY GBP/JPY NZD/JPY CAD/JPY
R3 97.63 164.30 209.24 83.70 105.38
M5 97.17 163.65 208.04 83.30 104.60
R2 96.71 163.00 206.83 82.89 103.82
M4 95.96 162.19 204.84 82.20 102.53
R1 95.20 161.37 202.85 81.50 101.24
M3 94.74 160.72 201.65 81.10 100.46
PP 94.28 160.07 200.44 80.69 99.68
M2 93.53 159.26 198.45 80.00 98.39
S1 92.77 158.44 196.46 79.30 97.10
M1 92.31 157.79 195.26 78.90 96.32
S2 91.85 157.14 194.05 78.49 95.54
M0 91.10 156.33 192.06 77.80 94.25
S3 90.34 155.51 190.07 77.10 92.96
* - based on GFT DealBook 360 price data
Daily Ranges **
AVERAGE
(Last 4 Weeks)
EUR/USD 169
GBP/USD 181
USD/CHF 160
USD/JPY 181
USD/CAD 117
AUD/USD 117
AUD/JPY 208
CAD/JPY 213
EUR/JPY 220
GBP/JPY 361
NZD/JPY 210
NZD/USD 114
GBP/CHF 307
EUR/CHF 128
** - Based on DealBook 360 price data through Friday, April 11, 2008
How To Trade Gold, Oil, Stocks, and Sheep Using Forex (48:53)
Forex is all about global money flow. It drives the supply and demand of cash, thereby directly effecting the value of currencies. In such a hot commodities market that we face today, your currency trading can correlate with the moves seen in the metals, energies, and stock index pits at exchanges around the world. What about sheep? How do they help you trade forex? Come to the presentation and find out. CLICK THE LINK BELOW TO WATCH THE VIDEO |
FROM APRIL 13, 2007 | The market didn't react to PPI or Trade Balance news releases. We watched it sit in a 10 pip range for over two hours without a conservative/repeatable trade opportunity. Then BAMB! Reversals and breakouts with full currency correlation across the board. It seems that the market moved in anticipation to the G7 meeting this weekend. In anycase, another great trading day.
Three scalp trades today. 25 pips, 40 pips and 75 pips. This video gives a detailed review of the later two. One based on the Consumer Confidence news scalp and the other based on a 1-2-3 reversal pattern, at support with divergence.
Central bank monetary policy decisions should drive the foreign exchange markets today. The markets are expecting a 25bp cut from the Bank of England and no change from the European Central Bank.
Wayne McDonell, FX BootCamp, LLC
Gold: Triple Whammy
Wayne McDonell examines the recent meteoric rise in the price of gold, what may lie ahead, and which currency might benefit. Click Here to watch the video: http://www.moneyshow.com/msc/investors/playerCust.asp?v=1628&scode=010805 |
This is a great lesson on Support & Resistance. We went back 6 months on the EUR/JPY and traded the S&R on today's 1 min chart. The levels still worked amazingly well... not just today, but the last three days. We also caught a good Fibonacci scalp trade for 50 pips based on this logic. USD weakness, EUR/GBP up, EUR/CHF down. So we shorted the USD/CHF 38.2% retracement and cashed out at the 161.8% extension.
Unless Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke conveys a new or modified message during a scheduled speech, Industrial Production data from the U.K. might be the primary news catalyst on a day devoid of major U.S. news reports. This video features review of the IP data as well as historical price data for GBP/USD.
The Japanese Yen had been sky rocketing throughout the entire European Session. However, as New York was warming up, a clear double bottom was forming. Watch this video to see how we use the 1H, 15M and 1M charts to set up scalp and spot trades, both long and short, to make our daily pips.
After a fantastic trend line breakout to the downside, and negative British housing news, all GBP related pairs proceeded nicely to downside pivot targets for the day. Once GBP/USD reached support that had been present for quite a while at 1.9754 you could tell profit taking was the theme. Now we plan a trade which we call a 'Moo trade' (see video for explanation) to take place during the second half of London. This is where the pullback reaches our m1 pivot point, which in this case overlapped with the 15m 21ema, and a fib line, acts as role reversal resistance, then immediately reverses back and continues right through that previous support reaching lower lows through S2. Ultimately we were able to stay patient awaiting our re-entry in the 1.9800-9805 area, then a quite painless +130 more pips graced us until the 'cows came home'. Wonderful London indeed. Stay Safe!
Range bound day after Non-Farm Payrolls. The Majors were stalled and the JPYs not doing much. Just one trade opportunity for us and that was a range trade setup of shorting at resistance and cashing out at support... with a reload in between. Only 50 pips at best, but nothing less moved. So not bad at all. However, this certainly could have been a "no trade" session for capital preservation.
Weekly Pivot Points*
Apr 7-11, 2008
EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/CHF USD/JPY
R3 1.6304 2.0397 1.0571 107.44
M5 1.6202 2.0309 1.0482 106.31
R2 1.6099 2.0222 1.0394 105.18
M4 1.6008 2.0149 1.0309 104.25
R1 1.5918 2.0077 1.0225 103.32
M3 1.5816 1.9989 1.0136 102.19
PP 1.5713 1.9902 1.0048 101.06
M2 1.5622 1.9830 0.9963 100.13
S1 1.5532 1.9757 0.9879 99.20
M1 1.5429 1.9670 0.9790 98.07
S2 1.5327 1.9582 0.9702 96.94
M0 1.5236 1.9510 0.9617 96.01
S3 1.5146 1.9437 0.9533 95.08
* - based on GFT DealBook 360 price data
Weekly Pivot Points*
Apr 7-11, 2008
USD/CAD AUD/USD NZD/USD EUR/CHF GBP/CHF
R3 1.0574 0.9484 0.8147 1.6128 2.0927
M5 1.0512 0.9419 0.8099 1.6065 2.0759
R2 1.0450 0.9355 0.8052 1.6002 2.0591
M4 1.0358 0.9322 0.8011 1.5959 2.0455
R1 1.0266 0.9289 0.7971 1.5915 2.0319
M3 1.0204 0.9224 0.7923 1.5852 2.0151
PP 1.0142 0.9160 0.7876 1.5789 1.9983
M2 1.0050 0.9127 0.7835 1.5745 1.9847
S1 0.9958 0.9094 0.7795 1.5702 1.9711
M1 0.9896 0.9029 0.7748 1.5639 1.9543
S2 0.9834 0.8965 0.7700 1.5576 1.9375
M0 0.9742 0.8932 0.7660 1.5533 1.9239
S3 0.9650 0.8899 0.7619 1.5489 1.9103
* - based on GFT DealBook 360 price data
Weekly Pivot Points*
Apr 7-11, 2008
AUD/JPY EUR/JPY GBP/JPY NZD/JPY CAD/JPY
R3 99.12 166.88 214.22 85.04 108.67
M5 97.94 165.43 211.95 84.12 107.06
R2 96.76 163.98 209.67 83.19 105.45
M4 95.96 162.91 207.81 82.41 104.24
R1 95.16 161.83 205.94 81.62 103.02
M3 93.98 160.38 203.67 80.70 101.41
PP 92.80 158.93 201.39 79.77 99.80
M2 92.00 157.86 199.53 78.99 98.59
S1 91.20 156.78 197.66 78.20 97.37
M1 90.02 155.33 195.39 77.28 95.76
S2 88.84 153.88 193.11 76.35 94.15
M0 88.04 152.81 191.25 75.57 92.94
S3 87.24 151.73 189.38 74.78 91.72
* - based on GFT DealBook 360 price data
Unemployment rate up. Headline number down. Revision number down. This is bad for the USD, Bad for the Stock Market and fantastic for the Bond market. Forex traders attending this free live webinar bought yen like crazy. Watch how we setup scalp and spot trades for atleast 150 pips on the GBP/JPY.
Monthly Pivot Points*
April 2008
EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/CHF USD/JPY
R3 1.6819 2.0920 1.1244 112.51
M5 1.6590 2.0790 1.1047 110.43
R2 1.6361 2.0659 1.0850 108.34
M4 1.6210 2.0451 1.0624 106.20
R1 1.6059 2.0243 1.0397 104.06
M3 1.5830 2.0113 1.0200 101.98
PP 1.5601 1.9982 1.0003 99.89
M2 1.5450 1.9774 0.9777 97.75
S1 1.5299 1.9566 0.9550 95.61
M1 1.5070 1.9436 0.9353 93.53
S2 1.4841 1.9305 0.9156 91.44
M0 1.4690 1.9097 0.8930 89.30
S3 1.4539 1.8889 0.8703 87.16
USD/CAD AUD/USD NZD/USD EUR/CHF GBP/CHF
R3 1.1030 0.9928 0.8474 1.6521 2.1995
M5 1.0849 0.9814 0.8409 1.6360 2.1689
R2 1.0668 0.9699 0.8343 1.6199 2.1383
M4 1.0566 0.9554 0.8219 1.6067 2.0967
R1 1.0464 0.9409 0.8095 1.5935 2.0550
M3 1.0283 0.9295 0.8030 1.5774 2.0244
PP 1.0102 0.9180 0.7964 1.5613 1.9938
M2 1.0000 0.9035 0.7840 1.5481 1.9522
S1 0.9898 0.8890 0.7716 1.5349 1.9105
M1 0.9717 0.8776 0.7651 1.5188 1.8799
S2 0.9536 0.8661 0.7585 1.5027 1.8493
M0 0.9434 0.8516 0.7461 1.4895 1.8077
S3 0.9332 0.8371 0.7337 1.4763 1.7660
AUD/JPY EUR/JPY GBP/JPY NZD/JPY CAD/JPY
R3 105.70 167.90 221.80 89.28 113.41
M5 103.67 165.73 218.34 87.88 111.48
R2 101.63 163.55 214.88 86.47 109.55
M4 98.97 161.97 210.62 84.42 106.47
R1 96.30 160.39 206.36 82.37 103.38
M3 94.27 158.22 202.90 80.97 101.45
PP 92.23 156.04 199.44 79.56 99.52
M2 89.57 154.46 195.18 77.51 96.44
S1 86.90 152.88 190.92 75.46 93.35
M1 84.87 150.71 187.46 74.06 91.42
S2 82.83 148.53 184.00 72.65 89.49
M0 80.17 146.95 179.74 70.60 86.41
S3 77.50 145.37 175.48 68.55 83.32
AVERAGE
Last 4 Weeks
EUR/USD 163
GBP/USD 192
USD/CHF 161
USD/JPY 175
USD/CAD 125
AUD/USD 143
AUD/JPY 241
CAD/JPY 221
EUR/JPY 228
GBP/JPY 368
NZD/JPY 217
NZD/USD 132
GBP/CHF 310
EUR/CHF 142
* - Based on DealBook 360 price data through Friday, March 28, 2008
ISM numbers were better than expected today, but still very bad. This means the bulls and bears will both win. We scalp traded the big news spike and then we spot traded the bigger reversal on the GBP/JPY. In fact, its an hour later and we're just now getting knocked out
Oil prices "should" be based on supply and demand.
With the US in recession and the global decoupling theory in serious jeopardy, demand isn't as strong as it used to be. If that is the case, as long as we have enough oil stock piled, then oil prices "should" decline.
According to this weeks oil inventory release by the Department of Energy, we have more than enough oil. In fact, we have 320 million barrels of the stuff in storage... and I'm not counting the strategic reserves for the military. This is the oil for the US Economy.
Take a look at this chart from the DOE:
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=79079
This oil inventory chart shows two things:
- Oil inventories have been rising for 12 of the last 13 weeks.
- Oil inventories are high within the normal range for this time of year... sorta like bollinger bands... we are well inside the standard deviation.
So here is my logic. Demand is likely slowing and supply IS rising. Logic would dictate that oil prices "should" fall.
The only problem is that many traders are using oil futures as a new asset class in of its self. But that being said, I think that is only propping up prices and they could fall like a house of cards.
The oil futures business is a fairly small market. Its traditionally driven by the "fundamentalists". When the speculators turn from bulls to bears, which they are known to do at any given time and all at once, then the oil prices will crash back down to "fundamental" prices. I estimate this to be in the range of $77.77 to $88.88, depending on normal short-term fluctuations.
Watch USD/CAD and CAD/JPY.
Best regards,
Wayne McDonell
A tough NY session left us only scalping opportunities. USD/CHF and EUR/USD gave us correlated trade setups and Support/Resistance gave us not just profit targets, but reversal entries. Not a bad trading session. Our swing trade from yesturday is now up almost 400 pips and only 100 pips from our profit target. Now is the time to lock in some profit... just in case.
