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USD/CHF was our leading horse. The inverse head & shoulders setup up. Then a double top with full currency correlation helped us sell dollars across the majors. Pivot Points and Oscillator Divergence helped us out from there
After a fantastic 'ride the 5' down on GBP/CHF during the London session for a couple hundred pips, we had extended a little too far too fast and a retracement looked likely. In this video we build a trade plan for longing the retracement, in order to take advantage of the profit taking from the short. Using support and short term chart confirmations offered us our entry around 1.9715. By it's very nature this type of countertrend trade is far riskier than normal setups, but with an 80-100 pip potential this one had a decent risk vs. reward. However, as you will see in the video, this one did not play out during our time horizon in a comfortable fashion at all, our reward potential steadily decreased, nearly stopped us out but ultimately gave us our pips. A perfect example of how things do not always go as planned, but with discipline, and a trade plan that you do not deviate from you can keep your calm whether you win or lose. Not every trade plan is a bed of roses.
10 Months Of Intense Forex Training... For Free!
Experts: Wayne McDonell, Chief Currency Coach & David Pegler, Drill Instructor. FxBootcamp.com
Moderator: Maud Gilson
Start: Fri, Mar 28 2008, 08:00 GMT <--- GMT
End: Fri, Mar 28 2008, 10:00 GMT
Type: Live Webinar
Basic Training | Session #1
Summary:
In this long-term educational series, called "FX Bootcamp Basic Training", we will start you at the very beginning: teaching you how to crawl. Over the next several months, you will learn how to stand, step, walk, run, and sprint your way into the forex trading industry.
The FX Bootcamp Basic Training series includes technical analysis, fundamental analysis, inter-market analysis, trade analysis and of course psychological analysis. Each of the presentations will a mix of webinar and live market data.
The first presentation in March will teach you:
- How to identify Support and Resistance with trend lines.
- How to identify the major Candlestick Patterns
- How to use Candlestick Patterns to trade Support & Resistance
The first step in becoming a successful forex trader is learning how to read your charts. This is the foundation of what we do: use past price data to try and predict future price action. We may apply sophisticated mathematical models to extrapolate patterns and cycles, but the basic building blocks of forex technical analysis are simply candlesticks and trend lines.
The Basic Training Continuing Series
Please plan on attending future presentations at FXstreet.com:
April: Fibonacci Studies, Moving Averages.
May: Stochastic, MACD, and RSI Oscillators.
June: Pattern Recognition, Currency Correlation, Commodity Correlation, Inter-market analysis.
July: Breakouts, Continuation Patterns, Trending and Naked Trading.
August: Pivot Points, Andrews Pitch Fork News Trading.
September: Trade Planning, Carry & Swing Trading, Trader Psychology,
October: Money Management & Trader Psychology.
November: Central Banking and Global Money Flow.
December: Course Review with Q&A: GRADUATION!
A multi-year low for this month's version of the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index produced an immediate negative reaction in yen crosses and U.S. equity indices alike. Analysis from multiple angles – history, fundamentals, technicals, currency correlation, and intermarket analysis – suggested that a downward move would not likely have legs. A double bottom on the GBP/JPY short-term charts gave traders the final clue of the reversal to come. From entry just above a psychological level, to exit at the top of a downward channel, the long trade produced a 120-pip profit for those traders who recognized the clues and acted on them.
(click chart to expand)
The end result of this trade has two opportunites:
1) You take profit at the first momentum cross down on the 1 min chart. This occured 36 mins after the news and about 21 mintues after the entry for a quick 30 pips from "cross to cross".
2) Stay in the trade based on the 15 mintue chart. The channel is point up, so it should be ok. However, the stochastics looks like the pair is over bought and ripe for a retracement. Assuming I entered the trade after the news, I can't afford to ride out the pull-back. But if you feel oil prices are likely to continue to fall, maybe this is a longer term position trade to you and you are slowing scaling in your CAD shorts.
It all depends on your plan. You have a trade plan... right? ;-)
Canadian JAN RETAIL SALES
M/M: 1.5% 1.4%E; LESS AUTOS M/M: 1.3% 0.5%E
- Prior Retail sales MoM revised from 0.6% to 0.8%
- Prior Less Autos MoM revised from -0.4% to -0.3%
In these USD/CAD charts, you can see the response to CAD Retail Sales. It was a little better than expected... but not much. The Loonied gained value for less than 5 minutes until it hit a support channel on the 15 min charts.
A scalp trader would have picked up 24 pips or less, but most likely broken even on the reversal. However, spot traders got an "easy in" after the bounce at support. The cross on the 1 min chart AFTER the bounce was the conservative/repeatable trade oppotunity.
The Easter Monday holiday in most major international markets suggested low liquidity conditions for today's New York session, giving many traders reason to take the day off. Those traders who did show discovered that a case was building during the first 30 minutes for a bounce in the yen crosses. An aggressive entry for a long trade on the GBP/JPY came about 90 minutes prior to a more conservative entry which followed the release of U.S. existing home sales figures for February. Two logical targets – the first an hourly 200 ema, the second a major psychological level – were achieved within the hour following the housing news. Profits from these trades during the pound yen's climb ranged from 150 to 235 pips, depending on entry & exit.
A 30 minute review of the market moving events from last week and their effects on forex trading. A preview of this week's calendar is also included.
Weekly Pivot Points*
Mar 24-28, 2008
EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/CHF USD/JPY
R3 1.6266 2.0684 1.0859 106.15
M5 1.6175 2.0581 1.0685 104.73
R2 1.6084 2.0478 1.0512 103.30
M4 1.5921 2.0312 1.0407 102.37
R1 1.5758 2.0146 1.0302 101.43
M3 1.5667 2.0043 1.0129 100.01
PP 1.5576 1.9940 0.9955 98.58
M2 1.5413 1.9774 0.9850 97.65
S1 1.5250 1.9608 0.9745 96.71
M1 1.5159 1.9505 0.9572 95.29
S2 1.5068 1.9402 0.9398 93.86
M0 1.4905 1.9236 0.9293 92.93
S3 1.4742 1.9070 0.9188 91.99
* - based on GFT DealBook 360 price data
Weekly Pivot Points*
Mar 24-28, 2008
USD/CAD AUD/USD NZD/USD EUR/CHF GBP/CHF
R3 1.0828 0.9819 0.8458 1.6170 2.1226
M5 1.0695 0.9725 0.8394 1.6054 2.0969
R2 1.0561 0.9632 0.8330 1.5937 2.0712
M4 1.0478 0.9478 0.8227 1.5847 2.0533
R1 1.0395 0.9325 0.8123 1.5756 2.0354
M3 1.0261 0.9231 0.8059 1.5640 2.0097
PP 1.0128 0.9138 0.7995 1.5523 1.9840
M2 1.0045 0.8984 0.7892 1.5433 1.9661
S1 0.9962 0.8831 0.7788 1.5342 1.9482
M1 0.9828 0.8737 0.7724 1.5225 1.9225
S2 0.9695 0.8644 0.7660 1.5109 1.8968
M0 0.9612 0.8490 0.7556 1.5018 1.8789
S3 0.9529 0.8337 0.7453 1.4928 1.8610
* - based on GFT DealBook 360 price data
Weekly Pivot Points*
Mar 24-28, 2008
AUD/JPY EUR/JPY GBP/JPY NZD/JPY CAD/JPY
R3 98.34 161.85 211.13 86.54 106.19
M5 97.16 160.64 208.80 85.36 104.98
R2 95.98 159.42 206.46 84.17 103.77
M4 94.43 157.98 204.17 82.83 102.15
R1 92.88 156.54 201.87 81.49 100.52
M3 91.70 155.33 199.54 80.31 99.31
PP 90.52 154.11 197.20 79.12 98.10
M2 88.97 152.67 194.91 77.78 96.48
S1 87.42 151.23 192.61 76.44 94.85
M1 86.24 150.02 190.28 75.26 93.64
S2 85.06 148.80 187.94 74.07 92.43
M0 83.51 147.36 185.65 72.73 90.81
S3 81.96 145.92 183.35 71.39 89.18
* - based on GFT DealBook 360 price data
Average Daily Ranges *
AVERAGE
Last 4 Weeks
EUR/USD 163
GBP/USD 194
USD/CHF 164
USD/JPY 172
USD/CAD 130
AUD/USD 151
AUD/JPY 237
CAD/JPY 227
EUR/JPY 222
GBP/JPY 351
NZD/JPY 217
NZD/USD 137
GBP/CHF 305
EUR/CHF 146
* - Based on DealBook 360 price data through Friday, March 21, 2008
A rebound in the US dollar, in combination with increased pressure on the British Pound after the BOE's MPC meeting minutes revealed an unexpected member in the dovish camp, weighed heavily on the GBP/USD during today's New York session. The retracement to an overlap of a 38.2% retracement level and the 21 ema on the 15-minute chart provided traders with an ideal entry point for a short trade. A profit of about 150 pips was the outcome after the logical exit at today's M1 pivot point.
Expert: Wayne McDonell, Chief Currency Coach at FxBootcamp
Moderator: Maud Gilson, Conference Manager
Summary:
A trader with a SMART PLAN for every trade, a trade plan based on solid analysis before they pull the trigger, has a much greater survival rate on the long-term. Reacting to the market is a simple game of chance. This may work for some traders on the short-term, but eventually, their luck runs out.
Planning a trade in advance allows a trader to gather intelligence and formulate a strategy before they execute the tactics of getting in/out of a trade according to the plan. The benefits to learning how to plan your forex trading are immediate. First of all, you stop making stupid trades. Second, you make less trades. Lastly, you end up making the same types of trades repeatably, which means you can trade with this methodology throughout your career and not rely on your gut instinct or a flip of the coin.
In this two hour presenation, Wayne McDonell will take you through the step by step process reading the markets and creating a trade plan.
You will learn how to use:
- Moving averages to align market with price.
- Support & Resistance of market and price.
- The long term Trend as "Fair Market Value".
- Pivot Points analysis for Profit Targets.
- Limits for Exits.
- Mentally prepare for each of your trades.
- and more!
Part One: http://transcripts.fxstreet.com/2008/02/monthly-webinar.html
Part Two: http://transcripts.fxstreet.com/2008/02/monthly-webin-1.html
A new plan by the Federal Reserve to revive lending among banks, announced during the first hour of today's New York session, sparked a rally in the US dollar. Currency correlation, a second chance on a pullback, and a “ride the 5” scenario across the major pairs was classic. The EUR/USD, for example, offered a variety of entry/exit options which could be combined to produce a short trade with up to 140 pips in profit.
Comments made during a speech by European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet triggered a lower low for the EUR/USD during the first hour of today's New York session. Although the pullback did provide a logical entry point for a short trade, the euro failed to extend lower on a day devoid of major U.S. news. The yen crosses, mostly mixed through the first half of the session, surged lower across the board as equity markets sold off following a new record high in oil prices. Traders who took a short trade entry on the GBP/JPY at the re-test of European session lows, then saw a classic two-speed move – price first riding the Bollinger Band, then riding the 5 ema. Those who took profit at today's M1 pivot point netted about 140 pips.
Rather choppy night on the first London session after last weeks Negative NFP report. Also there was a Daylight Savings Time change which affected everyone in the US today. This combo made a proper London open a little harder to pinpoint. Nevertheless, even with the tight action we were able to identify a nice entry on GBP/JPY using a multi-year low from USD/JPY, and it's behavior around that number today. As well as short term stochastic, and MACD divergence with price action indicating the down move was losing steam. This was all happening at the bottom of a short term channel. Once 5/8 cross is all you really need at that point to offer confirmation. Depending on how the trade was handled afterwards it was a fairly easy 40-90 pips. Nothing wrong with that on a tougher than normal night for follow through. Otherwise it was a decent night for capital preservation.
Monthly Pivot Points March 2008*
EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/CHF USD/JPY
R3 1.6265 2.0730 1.1583 111.91
M5 1.6008 2.0541 1.1464 111.08
R2 1.5751 2.0351 1.1344 110.25
M4 1.5608 2.0236 1.1111 108.62
R1 1.5465 2.0120 1.0878 106.99
M3 1.5208 1.9931 1.0759 106.16
PP 1.4951 1.9741 1.0639 105.33
M2 1.4808 1.9626 1.0406 103.70
S1 1.4665 1.9510 1.0173 102.07
M1 1.4408 1.9321 1.0054 101.24
S2 1.4151 1.9131 0.9934 100.41
M0 1.4008 1.9016 0.9701 98.78
S3 1.3865 1.8900 0.9468 97.15
USD/CAD AUD/USD NZD/USD EUR/CHF GBP/CHF
R3 1.0632 1.0200 0.8639 1.6518 2.2637
M5 1.0524 1.0024 0.8533 1.6446 2.2438
R2 1.0415 0.9848 0.8426 1.6373 2.2239
M4 1.0280 0.9713 0.8316 1.6231 2.1857
R1 1.0145 0.9577 0.8206 1.6088 2.1474
M3 1.0037 0.9401 0.8100 1.6016 2.1275
PP 0.9928 0.9225 0.7993 1.5943 2.1076
M2 0.9793 0.9090 0.7883 1.5801 2.0694
S1 0.9658 0.8954 0.7773 1.5658 2.0311
M1 0.9550 0.8778 0.7667 1.5586 2.0112
S2 0.9441 0.8602 0.7560 1.5513 1.9913
M0 0.9306 0.8467 0.7450 1.5371 1.9531
S3 0.9171 0.8331 0.7340 1.5228 1.9148
USD/CAD AUD/USD NZD/USD EUR/CHF GBP/CHF
R3 1.0632 1.0200 0.8639 1.6518 2.2637
M5 1.0524 1.0024 0.8533 1.6446 2.2438
R2 1.0415 0.9848 0.8426 1.6373 2.2239
M4 1.0280 0.9713 0.8316 1.6231 2.1857
R1 1.0145 0.9577 0.8206 1.6088 2.1474
M3 1.0037 0.9401 0.8100 1.6016 2.1275
PP 0.9928 0.9225 0.7993 1.5943 2.1076
M2 0.9793 0.9090 0.7883 1.5801 2.0694
S1 0.9658 0.8954 0.7773 1.5658 2.0311
M1 0.9550 0.8778 0.7667 1.5586 2.0112
S2 0.9441 0.8602 0.7560 1.5513 1.9913
M0 0.9306 0.8467 0.7450 1.5371 1.9531
S3 0.9171 0.8331 0.7340 1.5228 1.9148
AUD/JPY EUR/JPY GBP/JPY NZD/JPY CAD/JPY
R3 106.36 168.59 219.49 91.72 113.07
M5 104.90 166.79 218.08 90.81 112.21
R2 103.43 164.99 216.67 89.90 111.34
M4 101.71 163.11 214.09 88.14 109.75
R1 99.99 161.23 211.50 86.37 108.15
M3 98.53 159.43 210.09 85.46 107.29
PP 97.06 157.63 208.68 84.55 106.42
M2 95.34 155.75 206.10 82.79 104.83
S1 93.62 153.87 203.51 81.02 103.23
M1 92.16 152.07 202.10 80.11 102.37
S2 90.69 150.27 200.69 79.20 101.50
M0 88.97 148.39 198.11 77.44 99.91
S3 87.25 146.51 195.52 75.67 98.31
* - based on GFT DealBook 360 price data
After a very ranging day yesterday today we looked for further bounces off our previous few days trend lines. Just before our normal 2am London session open, as London liquidity entered the market, the British Pound Sterling decided to dive off a cliff. One quick look at the GBP/CHF showed us that we were falling right off an upper trend line with no real end in sight for at least a hundred pips or so, which was yet another lower trend line. Even missing the initial fall off the trend line, doing a quick Fibonacci study offered us a couple areas to watch for quality entries on a possible retracement. The first 15minute candle did not retrace, so we adjusted the fib, and sure enough the next fib gave us an overlap of a 61.8 level, 15m 21ema, and the daily central pivot point. All to be done then is to wait for the retrace or enter an entry order. Whammo the 61.8 gets hit and it's a quite easy 90 or so pip ride to the lower trend line. In the video we also show how one additional 61.8 entry was available after the initial target was reached. What a nice example of technical respect of support and resistance.
Included fundamental and historical data, as well as spike and range analysis for scalp traders.
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