« September 2007 | Main | November 2007 »
After spending nearly 24 hours in a 30-pip range, the USD/CHF broke below the central pivot point before the open of today's New York session. Fortunately, a second-chance entry emerged conveniently at the open of the session. The Swissie then “rode the 5” in a classic M3 to M1 move which netted roughly 40 pips [depending on entry].
The start of our coaching session has us too late to take advantage of the current downtrend in the AUD-USD. However, longer term analysis points out to a key support/potential reversal area, when combined with Daily Pivots provides us with a very good entry to the upside for about 50 pips.
Today's New York session saw two major U.S. news releases. Worse than expected durable goods figures sparked a breakout move in the direction of the prevailing trend. The all-time high [reached earlier in the week], average daily range, and a pivot point helped predict a target which maximized profit for those traders who took the news trade. The subsequent report on new housing sales, generally expected to be the headline news event of the day, failed to inspire traders as the market consolidated into London close.
After an extremely volatile NY session yesterday many pairs were consolidating a bit before deciding what to do next. During late Moscow/early London session time frame many pairs began their journey onward. One of the trade plans we put together in the classroom revolved around the EUR/JPY. This pair offered evidence of a likely breakout on the next 15minute candle, then immediately performed as expected. Even if members decided to await the actual breakout, this pair offered a retest with confirmation on a smaller time frame chart for entry. Either way most members at bootcamp were able to take advantage of this smooth trade that simply glided upwards all night riding the 5ema to our pre-determined take profit zone. Just one of a half dozen quality trade setups the market offered us today, netting members 80-100 pips depending on entry/exit. Gotta love moves like this, it really does not get much better than this.
The USD/CAD had already exceeded its recent average daily range when it reached the M1 pivot point and the 121.4% Fibonacci extension of yesterday's range at the open of today's New York session. After the Loonie's response to Canadian retail sales news failed to break those levels of support, the cross of the 5 EMA and 8 SMA provided the final confirmation for traders seeking a long trade. The Loonie ran out of steam just prior to London close, so the trade's 70+ pip potential was not realized. However, a profit of at least 15 pips was attained by those traders who executed proper trade management.
The EUR/USD had been riding the 5 EMA on the longer timeframe charts throughout the day's prior trading sessions. A bounce on the 21 EMA and subsequent 5/8 cross appeared just before the New York session began. Traders who took the entry at the 5 EMA enjoyed a quick ride to the 1.43 area – a new all-time high for the euro. The outcome: 30 to 40 pips (depending on the exit strategy).
Swissy, some commodity, and yen related pairs had some nice movements throughout the Moscow/London sessions. However, in this video we highlight how we put together 3 different trade plans on the GBP/USD after the much better than expected British Retail Sales report was released at 4:30am EST. With Capital Preservation our number#1 goal at FXBootcamp, I think it is important to focus on trades that do not always work as planned along with the successful ones. With proper trade management, even with a trade not working out, 'Break Even' is often as bad as it will get. B/E is not a loss, and people should be proud of themselves for properly managing each trade.
Some quality bounces at key levels on many pairs occurred during the end of the Moscow session. However, there were still a few decent trade setups that presented themselves after the initial bounce entries. In this video we breakdown how we developed a trade plan live, to place an entry within a continuation of the AUD/USD pair to the upside. While the initial indicators offered a nice entry, price did get sluggish over the next 1-2 hours, so patience and discipline were very key. During this time a key piece of technical data kept all of us in the trade which had a near immediate payoff right after. Depending on exit strategies this trade netted at least 60-70 pips and many are likely still in this trade during the production of this video. Go go Aussie!
Comments today by Japanese MOF officials sparked a lot of movement in early London trading today. The AUD/USD, for example, dropped more than 180 pips in about 30 minutes. New York traders, some of whom might have felt that they missed a golden opportunity, didn't need to dwell on the past for very long. Another 40 to 60 pips [depending on the entry] were available to those who stuck around for the Aussie's second act.
After a very volatile late Moscow, early London session, we still had a textbook FXBootcamp news trade play itself out with the release of the British CPI. CPI was worse then expected, and cause a 40+ pip candle immediately. Not chasing price, but practicing discipline and patience, we trapped price by identifying immediate support & resistance based on the first 5 minute news candle. After a break of support an entry awarded those taking part with 40ish painless pips. Although the ultimate target was not quite reached it was still a fairly straight forward news trade for some nice pippage.
The AUD/USD and EUR/USD were found sitting on key moving averages at the open of today's New York session. Using the 3-minute chart as confirmation in both cases, traders found entries for long trades near those levels of dynamic support. After seeing gains in price of at least 25 pips, those who locked in profits of 15 pips were glad they moved their stops, as neither currency pair managed to make a sustained move.
In a market absent of currency correlation, the GBP/USD showed promise to produce a highly profitable short trade as a solo act when it broke today's S2 pivot point early in the New York session. First, the bad news: Dollar weakness across the majors foiled that pound trade. Now, the good news: That same dollar weakness created an excellent long trade opportunity for the EUR/USD. Traders who took a conservative, second-chance entry on the euro captured nearly 50 pips on the move to the 1.41 level.
After reaching a new 23-year high during Moscow session trading, profit taking saw the AUD/USD drop half of its average daily range before finding a level of support. Within the first hour of today's New York session, a break of support, and the subsequent re-test, provided a conservative entry for a short trade. Traders who were patient and stayed with the trade, earned 25 pips before London close at today's conservative target – the 200 EMA. Those who stayed with it through London close, until the 5/8 cross during the New York afternoon, earned 50 pips.
Today's headline U.S. news report, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, produced a channel breakout trade involving the EUR/USD during today's New York session. The 24-pip profit â from second-chance entry to first logical target â was modest by some standards, but an ample bounty for conservative traders who strive for consistent capital appreciation over time.
The GBP/USD had been very choppy in the prior day, and slowly formed an ascending triangle on the 15 minute charts over yesterday and today. As price got heavy on the bottom, and broke the 200ema on the 15m chart, price took off for a quick 60 pip ride. There were a number of ways to perform a trade plan on this move which we discussed in detail live prior to the break. Either a break of the triangle, a break off the news trap 20 or so pips later, and/or a fade from the target. Today's target had something like 10 overlapping reasons for support at the same place, providing a fantastic fade/turtle trade opportunity as well for many of us.
The EUR/USD had already reached the S3 pivot point before the start of today's New York session. U.S. pending home sales news, released at mid-session, failed to have much effect on the pair, which went flat into London close. Fortunately, falling gold prices dropped us a hint that the Aussie might spark a triangle breakout. Traders who were prepared for the break and took it, netted a quick 15- to 30-pip profit, depending on the exit strategy. (Correction: The stop loss on the EUR/USD channel breakout trade should initially be moved to a break-even level, not to 15 pips profit as described in the video. The subsequent reversal in price would have stopped the trader out at break-even.)
Using the AUD's continued trend from early Asian session, we identify a conservative entry on an existing trend. We also mention that the more developed a trend is, ie. the later your entry into an existing trend, the greater the risk of retracement/reversal ahead of you. This video is made with emphasis on entering an existing trend. Please enjoy.
Recent Comments